It’s a Really Dry Start to the Season…

One of the big perks of my day job at Farmers Business Network is that I get to talk to farmers from across the United States. This helps me keep my finger on the pulse of the industry so I kind of know what’s on everyone’s mind. As of today, I would have to say that the really dry start to the season is top of mind for everyone right now, and not just in the Mississippi delta.

I was listening to my favorite weather guy, Todd Yakoubian, the other day and he mentioned that this period from November 2025 to March 2026 has been the driest ever recorded. This got me to thinking, how long has it been since we’ve had a true drought? Wasn’t it 2007 and then again in 2012 that things got really dry? Are we overdue?

According to NOAA, a drought is caused by drier than normal conditions that can eventually lead to water supply problems. Really hot temperatures can make a drought worse by evaporating moisture from the soil. But droughts don’t just happen in hot and dry places.

2026 Season is Underway…

The 2026 farming season across the United States is getting underway under unusually dry and increasingly concerning conditions. From the Southeast to the Great Plains and into the West, drought has emerged as the defining story of early spring agriculture.

As of mid-April, more than half of the country is experiencing some level of drought, with over 60% of the Lower 48 states classified in moderate to exceptional drought conditions (some levels that are among the highest ever recorded for this time of year).

Winter 2025 Never Really Delivered

The roots of this dry start trace back to late 2025. Much of the U.S. entered winter with below-average precipitation, and the season failed to deliver meaningful moisture. In regions like the Southeast, rainfall deficits have been building for months—some areas are running 8 to 16 inches below normal.

Compounding the issue, winter temperatures were warmer than normal across much of the country. That meant less snowpack in the West—one of the most critical water sources for irrigation—and faster evaporation of already limited soil moisture.

Regional Impacts Taking Shape

The effects are already being felt differently depending on location:

• Southeast: Nearly the entire region is experiencing drought conditions, with a large share in severe to exceptional drought—the worst coverage since monitoring began in 2000.
• Great Plains: Dry grasses and high winds have contributed to destructive early-season wildfires, damaging grazing land and livestock operations.
• West: A “snow drought” and early melt are raising concerns about water availability for irrigation later in the season.
• South & Lower Mississippi Valley: Drought conditions that began in late 2025 have already triggered federal disaster designations in multiple states.

Early Season Agricultural Stress

For farmers, this kind of start creates immediate challenges:

• Soil moisture is already depleted before planting even begins
• Winter wheat and early crops are showing signs of stress
• Pasture conditions are poor, forcing ranchers to rely on supplemental feed
• Irrigation demand is rising earlier than normal, increasing costs

In some areas, producers are making tough decisions—delaying planting, switching crops, or reducing herd sizes to adapt to limited forage and water.

Broader Implications

The implications extend beyond the farm gate. Drought conditions increase the risk of:

• Lower crop yields
• Higher input costs (especially water, fuel, and feed)
• Elevated food prices later in the year
• Increased wildfire risk across agricultural regions

In fact, early indicators suggest this drought could influence everything from grain markets to beef supply as the season progresses.

Is There Relief Ahead?

There is cautious optimism that weather patterns may shift later in 2026. Some forecasts point to a possible transition away from La Niña conditions, which could bring more rainfall to parts of the country in the second half of the year. However, for many farmers, the damage—or at least the disadvantage—has already begun.

Final Thought

Every farming season has its challenges, but 2026 is starting with a significant one: lack of water. In agriculture, timing is everything—and beginning the year in a moisture deficit puts pressure on every decision that follows.

For now, producers across the U.S. are doing what they always do—adapting, managing risk, and hoping for rain.