For much of 2026, row-crop producers have faced an uncomfortable combination: commodity prices that struggled to cover production costs and input expenses that refused to cooperate. As harvest approaches, however, corn and soybean markets have begun to look considerably different.
Corn has pushed above the psychologically important $5 level, while soybeans have moved well above $12. Recent crop scouting has raised questions about whether USDA’s production estimates may still be too optimistic in some areas, while strong demand has provided additional support. As of the August 25 close, December corn futures were $5.23½ per bushel and November soybean futures were $12.37¾. That’s a meaningful improvement from only a few weeks ago. On August 7, December corn closed at $4.62 and November soybeans at $11.76¼. (Successful Farming)
For growers, the important question now isn’t simply where prices are today. It’s whether this rally has enough fuel to continue into September and harvest.
Corn Has Made a Significant Move
Corn has arguably been the more interesting market recently. December futures closed August 24 at $5.15½ and climbed another eight cents August 25 to $5.23½. CME data also show December corn recently posting a contract-high close. (Successful Farming) That move matters. Just a few weeks earlier, producers were looking at December corn around the mid-$4 range. Moving above $5 changes the revenue picture considerably, even though $5 corn certainly doesn’t guarantee attractive margins given today’s production costs.
The market has received support from growing questions about yield. USDA’s August WASDE lowered its projected national corn yield from 183 bushels per acre to 180.7, a larger reduction than many traders expected. However, additional harvested acreage means USDA still projects an enormous crop of approximately 16.0 billion bushels. (Iowa Farm Bureau)
That’s the tug-of-war in corn right now. Potentially disappointing yields are bullish. A massive overall crop is bearish.
The Pro Farmer Tour Added Fuel to the Fire
The recent Pro Farmer Crop Tour gave traders another reason to question just how large this crop will ultimately be. After scouting more than 2,000 fields across seven major producing states, Pro Farmer estimated the 2026 U.S. corn crop at 15.344 billion bushels with an average yield of 173.2 bushels per acre. (Pro Farmer)
That’s substantially below USDA’s August projection of roughly 16.0 billion bushels and 180.7 bushels per acre. That difference is enormous. A seven-bushel-per-acre national yield difference can remove hundreds of millions of bushels from projected production. That doesn’t mean Pro Farmer will necessarily be right and USDA wrong. Crop Tour results aren’t directly comparable with USDA’s methodology, and actual combine yields will ultimately settle the argument. But the discrepancy gives the market something it desperately needed: uncertainty. And uncertainty can create volatility—and opportunity.
Soybeans Have Their Own Story
Soybeans have also strengthened. November futures closed August 25 at approximately $12.38 per bushel, up roughly 61 cents from the $11.76¼ close on August 7. (Successful Farming)
USDA currently forecasts a record 4.52-billion-bushel soybean crop, with an average yield of 52.7 bushels per acre. The agency projects 2026/27 ending stocks of approximately 320 million bushels and a season-average farm price of $11.40 per bushel. (Economic Research Service) Pro Farmer came in somewhat higher on production, estimating approximately 4.572 billion bushels and a 53.3-bushel national yield. (Pro Farmer) So unlike corn, the private crop estimate isn’t necessarily giving soybean bulls the same dramatically smaller-crop argument. Beans may need help from somewhere else.
China and Exports Could Be Critical for Soybeans
Soybeans are particularly sensitive to export demand. Recent USDA export data showed China buying 1.13 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2026/27 delivery in one reporting period. (Successful Farming) That’s important.
A large American soybean crop isn’t necessarily bearish if buyers are willing to absorb it. Domestic demand matters too. USDA raised projected soybean crush by 30 million bushels in its latest outlook to 2.78 billion bushels, reflecting strong demand for soybean products. (Economic Research Service) That creates one of the more interesting soybean markets we’ve seen recently.
The United States potentially has record production, but it also has significant crush demand and potentially strong export demand. If exports accelerate, the balance sheet could tighten surprisingly quickly.
What Happens Over the Next Few Weeks?
This is where things become particularly interesting. We’re moving out of the period when yield estimates are primarily theoretical.
Combines are about to start providing receipts.
Over the coming weeks, traders will increasingly replace crop models, satellite imagery and windshield observations with actual yield reports. If early harvest results consistently disappoint, particularly across major Corn Belt states, corn could find additional support. If combines begin producing surprisingly strong yields, the opposite could happen very quickly. That’s why I’d expect volatility rather than a straight-line move higher.
Corn: There’s a Bullish Case
The bullish corn argument is fairly straightforward. USDA has already reduced its yield estimate. Pro Farmer’s estimate is considerably lower. Export demand has been strong. Ending stocks have tightened. And December futures have broken above $5.
USDA currently projects 2026/27 corn ending stocks around 1.65 billion bushels, down significantly from its earlier expectations, while raising its season-average farm-price forecast to $4.50. (Iowa Farm Bureau) If actual harvest yields begin supporting the lower private estimates, the market may have to remove additional bushels from the balance sheet. That would be supportive.
But Corn Has a Bearish Case Too
We shouldn’t get carried away. Even after lowering yield, USDA is still projecting the second-largest corn crop on record. (The Wall Street Journal) Sixteen billion bushels is a lot of corn. Once combines begin rolling across the Midwest, producers who need cash or storage space will begin moving grain. That creates the traditional harvest-pressure risk. A bullish market can still experience a substantial correction when billions of bushels suddenly become physically available. That’s particularly relevant after a rally.
Soybeans May Be Even More Volatile
The soybean situation may be less straightforward. USDA is forecasting record production. Pro Farmer is also forecasting a very large crop. That creates substantial potential harvest pressure. At the same time, strong domestic crush and export demand could absorb considerably more soybeans than growers might expect. Weather remains important too. Late-season conditions can still materially affect soybean yield because August and early September are critical for pod filling in many areas. The market will therefore be watching weather, export sales and early yield reports extremely closely.
The September WASDE Could Be a Big One
The next major scheduled USDA event is the September WASDE on September 11. (USDA) That report could be particularly important this year. By then USDA will have additional information about crop development, acreage and yield potential. The market will be asking a simple question: Does USDA move closer to the lower corn expectations coming out of the countryside, or does it stick close to 180.7 bushels per acre?
If USDA makes another meaningful downward adjustment to corn yield, the balance sheet could tighten further. If USDA holds yield steady—or raises it—the recent rally could have difficulty maintaining momentum.
There’s Another Problem: Higher Prices Don’t Necessarily Mean Better Margins
This is something that gets overlooked whenever commodity prices rally. Farmers don’t farm on gross revenue. They farm on margin. And production expenses remain a serious problem. Fuel is particularly concerning as harvest approaches. Diesel prices have been elevated amid global energy disruptions, and fuel represents a meaningful portion of production expense for corn, soybeans and wheat. (Axios) Fertilizer, machinery, repairs, land, labor, insurance and interest expense aren’t cheap either.
So while $5.20 corn certainly looks better than $4.20 corn, growers shouldn’t confuse improving commodity prices with guaranteed profitability. The cost side of the ledger still matters.
What I’m Watching Through September
There are five things I would watch particularly closely over the next several weeks:
- Actual combine yields. This could quickly validate—or disprove—the idea that USDA’s corn yield is still too high.
- Chinese soybean purchases. Strong Chinese demand could provide beans with important support as the U.S. harvest arrives.
- Corn exports. Strong exports are one reason USDA’s projected corn carryout has tightened.
- September 11 WASDE. Another significant corn-yield reduction could materially alter the 2026/27 balance sheet.
- Harvest pressure. Even fundamentally bullish markets can decline when farmers begin delivering enormous quantities of new-crop grain.
So Where Could Prices Go?
Predicting an exact price several weeks ahead is mostly an exercise in false precision. But we can identify reasonable scenarios.
For corn, the market currently has momentum and legitimate fundamental support. If early harvest yields disappoint and USDA moves the national yield lower again, December futures could challenge higher levels from today’s roughly $5.24 area. Conversely, consistently strong combine yields could quickly bring harvest pressure back into the market.
For soybeans, maintaining prices above $12 will probably depend more heavily on demand. A combination of strong exports, Chinese purchases and domestic crush could support the market despite large production. Weakening export demand combined with strong harvest yields would create considerably more downside risk.
In other words, the next move is increasingly going to be decided by actual bushels rather than estimated bushels.
Growers Finally Have Something They Haven’t Had Much of Lately: Leverage
For farmers, perhaps the most encouraging development isn’t any particular futures price. It’s that the market finally has some uncertainty. Corn has moved from $4.62 on August 7 to $5.23½ on August 25—about a 61-cent rally in less than three weeks. Soybeans have moved from roughly $11.76 to $12.38 during the same period. (Successful Farming) That’s meaningful money on a farm.
On 200-bushel corn, a 60-cent move represents roughly $120 per acre in gross revenue exposure before accounting for basis, hedging, marketing costs and actual yield. It also illustrates why marketing matters. Nobody knows today whether $5.23 corn will look cheap or expensive six weeks from now. But growers finally have a market giving them something worth considering.
After several years in which production costs seemed to rise considerably faster than optimism, that’s a welcome change. The next few weeks should tell us whether this rally was simply a late-summer reprieve—or the beginning of a more meaningful reset in corn and soybean prices.
Market figures are futures-market references, not local cash bids or individual marketing recommendations. Local basis, storage costs and farm financial circumstances can materially change the price actually received by a producer.
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